Almost Three-Quarters of England Is Still in Drought, and Two Regions Are Expected to Stay There Into Spring
Rain in September has not ended the drought, and the Environment Agency has published when each part of England might leave it. The north first, the south last, and in one weather scenario in four, around half the country is still in drought next spring.
By Water Pages
The National Drought Group met on Tuesday 15 September 2026, and nothing changed. The government and the Environment Agency announced the next day that almost three-quarters of England remains in drought, the same as before the meeting, after what the announcement calls “an exceptionally dry spring and summer, alongside a succession of heatwaves”.
The rain that has fallen since does not end it. Water Minister Emma Hardy, after the meeting: “The recent rainfall is not yet enough to replenish all the water we’ve used over the last six months.”
This covers England. Drought status is declared by the Environment Agency, which does not cover Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland.
How much rain it would take
England needs 120% of its typical rainfall over the next seven months for all areas to be considered out of drought, according to new Environment Agency research. Not a normal autumn and winter, but a wetter-than-normal one.
The reason is how drought is measured. In the announcement’s words, “drought is only over when rivers, groundwaters and reservoirs are back to normal levels”, and groundwater and reservoirs “continue to recede, as expected”. A river can rise in a week of rain. An aquifer and a reservoir take months.
How England got here
The figures in the announcement run in order:
- September 2025 to March 2026: England had 130% of its typical rainfall, which ended the previous drought and left a buffer.
- Spring 2026: just over half, 56%, of typical rainfall.
- July 2026: the driest July on record.
- August 2026: joint-hottest on record, in a summer with five heatwaves. On the hottest days demand for water rose by as much as 30%.
- Summer overall: 64% of expected rainfall.
The Environment Agency’s chief executive, Philip Duffy, who chaired the meeting: “Several reservoirs are concerningly low … A few weeks of rain cannot reverse the deficit we face from the very dry spring and summer.”
When each region might leave drought
The Environment Agency modelled three rainfall scenarios for September to March, using data from each water company. These are its projections, not forecasts of a date, and they turn on rain that has not yet fallen.
| Most likely (based on the Met Office outlook) | Average rainfall (100%) | Dry (80%, around a one-in-four chance) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The north | Cumbria & Lancashire and Greater Manchester, Merseyside & Cheshire: recovery in October, normal in November | The same two areas normal in November | All four northern areas (those two, the North East and Yorkshire): recovery from November, normal by January |
| Most of the midlands and south | Most areas normal by February | Most areas in drought for the rest of 2026; by January everywhere except East Anglia in recovery or normal | Drought across the midlands and south for the rest of 2026 |
| Still in drought at the start of April 2027 | Devon & Cornwall, East Anglia | East Anglia may be; Devon & Cornwall in fragile recovery | East Anglia, Lincolnshire & Northamptonshire, Thames Valley, Devon & Cornwall, Wessex, Solent & South Downs, West Midlands |
In the most likely scenario, four areas are still in drought in December (Devon & Cornwall, East Anglia, the Thames Valley and the West Midlands), and by February the East and West Midlands and the Thames Valley are in recovery. Devon & Cornwall and East Anglia go into spring 2027, in the announcement’s words, “entering the traditionally dry months already with water deficits”.
The two numbers that sit behind the table: there is roughly a one-in-four chance that around half of the country will still be in drought next spring, and around a 1% chance of a severe drought in the coming months. England has not had a severe drought since 1976.
What the weather is expected to do
The Met Office’s outlook for September to November points to “the increased likelihood of a warmer and wetter than average autumn”, with wetter and windier weather more likely later in the season. The developing El Niño is one reason. The same announcement warns that the second half of September was forecast to turn drier again, “particularly in the south where the rain is needed the most”.
A wet autumn is not the same as a refill. The Environment Agency warns that autumn rain could bring flooding in some areas, and that flood water “is very difficult to store for public water supply because it arrives so rapidly and is high in sediment and nitrates that run off from the land”.
What has been announced
The measures in the announcement, as stated:
- A £65 million package for farmers affected by drought, including up to £15 million for on-farm reservoirs.
- £100 million to strengthen the response to extreme weather and wildfires.
- Water company work on resilience including nine new reservoirs by 2050, desalination plants and water transfers.
- Changes in the Planning and Infrastructure Act so that companies outside the water sector can build reservoirs treated as nationally significant infrastructure.
- Continued work on mandatory water efficiency labelling, and a response still to come on water efficiency in new homes.
The National Drought Group, which includes the government, the Met Office, regulators, water companies, farmers and conservation groups, now meets every week.
What it means at home
Whether a household faces restrictions is decided by its water company, not by the Environment Agency’s drought status, and the announcement names no new restrictions. What the government asked of the companies was to fix leaks quickly, follow their drought plans “without delay” and keep reducing demand “to help avoid any further restrictions”. Who can impose a hosepipe ban and what one covers is on the hosepipe bans page.
If you live in Devon and Cornwall or East Anglia, the projections point the same way in every scenario: into spring. How much rain has actually fallen near you, from the Environment Agency’s own gauges, is on the rainfall near you page.
Read at source, 23 September 2026: the announcement “Government, Environment Agency, and water companies step up efforts to prevent England remaining in drought by next spring”, published on gov.uk by the Environment Agency, the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs and Emma Hardy MP on 16 September 2026. Every figure, scenario and quotation above is taken from it. The regional table arranges the announcement’s three scenarios side by side; its wording is shortened, not changed. Water Pages is an independent information service, not a government body or a water company.